Buyout & assignment
What will leave the pools over the coming year, what it costs to carry, and how much of it will assign.
Clear answers on insured mortgage credit.
The questions are hard: what a HECM book will cost to carry and when it will leave, what a servicer's curtailments are really costing, what an HMSR is worth, what is actually driving speeds. The data behind them is harder. Roland Street answers them plainly, from loan-level data, for the people who carry the exposure — issuers, servicers, auditors, investors and the agencies that insure and guarantee the credit.
One client at a time · Critical thinking · Always a real person
Day one
Exposure starts at origination, not at a threshold
Loan by loan
Every answer is built from individual loans, not summaries
15 years
Managing billions of dollars of loans as an investor
Monthly
Client reports, sent as documents
The questions each party brings, and what we answer.
Five parties hold a stake in the value and amount of credit in an insured mortgage. They know where the risk sits. What they need are answers to specific questions from data that does not give them up easily.
Everything orbits the loan.
Every party's exposure begins the day the loan is originated and runs until payoff, assignment or claim. The thresholds people watch are only the moments it becomes visible. We look at the whole orbit.
01 · FHA
How far is the book from crossover, and where?
A HECM balance compounds until it passes the value of the home, and the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund pays the difference at claim.
Crossover projections by vintage, product and geography, built on the same loan-level population the fund is standing behind — not on an actuarial average of it.
02 · Ginnie Mae
Which issuers will struggle to fund their buyouts?
When an HMBS issuer can't fund its buyouts, the guarantor inherits the portfolio and every obligation attached to it.
Issuer concentration and liquidity-stress views: buyout pipeline against issuer size, non-assignable share, tax-and-insurance default trend — the indicators that move before an issuer does.
03 · Issuers & servicers
What will the next twelve months of buyouts and curtailments cost?
Advances, buyouts and curtailments start the day a loan is boarded. Loans that will not assign stay on the balance sheet. Every missed timeline is a cost nobody reimburses.
Funding forecasts across the life of the book, assignability screening loan by loan, and curtailment leakage analysis on forward FHA claims — by state, attorney network and process step.
04 · Accountants & auditors
Can the assumptions behind these values be defended?
HMSR values, buyout-loan fair values, claim receivables and reserves rest on timing and cost assumptions few can test independently.
Documented, defensible assumption sets with portfolio evidence for the audit file — and the sensitivities an audit committee can actually read.
05 · Bond investors
What is actually driving the speeds?
The guarantee removes credit loss, not credit events. Assignments, foreclosures and claims are what drive HMBS speeds.
Monthly CPRs by cohort from loan-level data, split into assignment, voluntary payoff and mortality or due-and-payable. The assignment piece is arithmetic; the rest is behavior. A blended number hides which one moved.
What we look at
See the exhibit →
One exhibit, so you can see how we think.
Each month we produce reports for clients: buyout and assignment pipelines, CPR decompositions, endorsement trends, claims and curtailment. One exhibit is shown on the site. The rest goes to clients.
CPR decomposition
What is actually retiring balance: assignment, voluntary payoff, or mortality and due-and-payable.
Endorsements
What the insurer is taking on, by fiscal year, product and claim amount.
Claims & curtailment
What forward FHA claims are losing to severity, and to missed timelines.
What we are hired for.
Judgment first: the right way to look at a position, the risks that matter and the traps underneath the data. The technology makes the answer repeatable; it is not the reason to call.
01
Buyout & liquidity strategy
For HMBS issuers
Loan-level forecast of buyouts by month across the life of the book, assignability screening, facility sizing and covenant headroom, and a plan for the loans that will not assign.
02
Claims & curtailment recovery
For FHA servicers
Timeline discipline, claim-filing quality and supplemental recovery on forward FHA claims. Root cause by state, attorney network and process step — not just a leakage number.
03
Valuation & audit support
For CFOs and their auditors
Independent assumption sets for HMSR, buyout loans and claim receivables, documented so they can be defended, with the sensitivities the audit committee will ask for.
04
Portfolio surveillance builds
For guarantor, policy and investor teams
Custom analytics on the same stack that produces the monitors: your population, your indicators, delivered as a scheduled PDF pack or a working session with the principals.
Engagements are scoped one at a time. Recurring reports for clients are sent as documents on a schedule we manage. There is nothing to log into.
Loan by loan, for the whole life of the loan.
Most analysis in this market runs on summaries and stops at the moments everyone is already watching. Ours starts from individual loans on the day they are originated and follows them to payoff, assignment or claim.
01
Loan by loan
Fifteen years of managing billions of dollars of loans taught us the answer usually sits in a few hundred of them. We read them, for the whole life of the loan. Exposure starts on day one, not at a threshold.
02
Focus on the 20%
In any book a handful of drivers move the answer. Most tools blend what is mechanical with what is behavior into one number; we separate them and find the handful.
03
Clarity over complexity
If it cannot fit on a single page, we have not thought about it carefully enough yet. Answers arrive plainly, without hedging, in the room.
04
A small roster, on purpose
You are not on a list. Both principals work every engagement, the work is too customized to do any other way, and there is nothing to log into.
Two principals. No bench.
Charlotte, NC · working nationally · small client roster, by design
Roland Street is a boutique: one principal from capital markets, one from servicing, and both of us on every engagement. Clients pay for judgment — the best way to look at a position, the real risks in it and the traps underneath the data — and for answers that are clear without being over-qualified. We are not a software company and not an investment bank. We are two people who read loans.
Rich Boyd
Principal — Capital Markets
Two decades on the institutional side of mortgage finance. Started as a mortgage analyst at Bank of America in 2007, analyzing pools of loans; became a trader with over a billion dollars of the bank's own capital; built a similar trading platform at Stifel; then ran multi-billion-dollar mortgage portfolios at an operating company, buying, hedging and selling them. Taught himself to code, run databases and build predictive models because the answers were needed faster than they could be requested. The job was always the same: take something genuinely complicated, understand what drives it, and turn it into one clear picture a decision-maker can act on.
Case files
Open all case files →
Buyout liquidity
The wave, funded eleven months early.
A loan-level forecast of buyouts by month let an HMBS issuer size its facility before the fixed-rate vintages arrived.
CurtailmentNine percent of every claim was leaking.
Timeline root cause by state and attorney network took leakage to 3.4% and recovered $6.8M in supplemental claims.
Audit supportThe fair value that could be defended.
HMSR and buyout-loan assumptions documented for the audit file. Closed without adjustment, reused the next year.
Everything we tell you is on the docket.
Every engagement runs on Docket: one record per client holding each deliverable, the assumptions behind it, the data it came from and every question and answer along the way. When a number moves, we can show what moved, why, and what we said last time.
In use · mortgage credit
The engagement record
Deliverables with their assumption sets and data provenance, versioned. Questions and answers logged so nothing is answered twice differently. The docket travels with the documents we send; there is nothing to log into.
In development · bank compliance
Exam and audit response memory
The same system, built out with a compliance partner for community banks: every regulator response cross-checked against everything the bank has said before, and data files tested against known examiner findings. Not yet offered. Register interest →
ROLANDSTREET
Bring us the complicated question.
Thirty minutes, no pitch, no slides. We will tell you honestly whether we can help, and if we cannot, who might.
Or email rich@rolandstreet.com.